基于模拟退火法的LHS在放射性废物处置场不确定性分析中的应用

Application of Latin Hypercube Sampling with Simulated Annealing for Uncertainty Analysis in Radioactive Waste Disposal Sites

  • 摘要: 放射性废物处置是一项与国土环境、公众安全及核工业可持续发展的重大问题。安全全过程系统分析是保障放射性废物处置设施从选址、建设运行到关闭后安全性的重要手段,不确定性分析是其中重要一环。环境变化、人员行为等事前无法控制的外部因素都将对放射性废物处置设施的安全产生重大影响,需要对其进行不确定性评估。本研究采用模拟退火对拉丁超立方抽样(LHS)进行改进,对放射性废物处置库安全全过程分析中参数不确定性的影响进行评估。通过迭代更新样本来实现更具代表性和高效的采样。

     

    Abstract: Disposal of radioactive waste is a major issue related to land and environmental protection, public safety, nuclear industry health, and sustainable development. Safety System Analysis (SSA) is an important approach to ensure the safety of radioactive waste disposal facilities throughout the entire process, from site selection and construction to operation and closure. Uncertainty analysis is a crucial component of SSA. Uncertainties stemming from uncontrollable external factors such as environmental changes and human behavior can have significant impacts on the safety of radioactive waste disposal facilities, necessitating uncertainty assessment. Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) is a commonly used method in uncertainty analysis. However, LHS alone cannot directly address the requirement for considering correlations between input parameters. When there are certain correlations among input parameters, other methods are needed for improvement. In this article, an improved approach to LHS using simulated annealing is adopted. Simulated annealing is a heuristic algorithm inspired by the annealing process in metallurgy, which simulates the slow cooling of materials to reach the lowest energy state. By iteratively updating samples, this method achieves more representative and efficient sampling.

     

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